Climate change modifies relationships shaping economic equity of actors in the supply network and health of marine populations. Previous research documents effects of climate change on fishing and adaptations of fleets. At the same time, global trade is changing the landscape and destiny of seafood. Social-ecological models can help to understand which factors–social, ecological, economic–have primarily shaped current development pathways and navigate relationships for equitable and sustainable outcomes in the interplay of changing climate and seafood markets. Here, we employ a general model adapted to the Humboldt squid fishery in North-West Mexico. The model combines local insights, locally parameterized, and general aspects, economics and fishery science theory. The squid fishery has outgrown most others in Mexico and experienced drastic changes which an interviewee described as: Squid is a very valuable resource with volumes from 3.000t to 80.000t. Nobody knows why it appears, 20 to 30 years ago there was no local market. There was incredible amounts of squid 10 years ago at 10 pesos per kg. Since then it disappeared […]. Crafting the model reflects the structure of relationships between actors in Mexico that are dominated by patterns such as patron client relationships, widely observed in other fishery contexts. Relationships and mobility interact with squid and Asian trade connections influence the outcomes of equity in price transmission and health of the squid population. A first simple model of the captured adaptive dynamics shows in equilibrium that the fitness of the fastest adapting traders and processors is the highest, which is tightly interlinked with the availability of capital. The development of such models is interdisciplinary by essence and will have implications to guide building structures of cross-scale management in local resource extraction.

Methods: Dynamic Systems Modeling/Bio-economic Modeling

People: Laura Elsler, Maja Schlüter

Funding: MuSES, Mistra, GRAID